Antigua and Barbuda Roadmap to Build Resilience

Antigua and Barbuda is a small island developing state (SIDS) located in the Caribbean that faces a complex set of vulnerabilities. The nation is highly exposed to a wide range of natural, and external threats, all of which are further intensified by the ongoing and increasing impacts of climate change. The country frequently experiences severe storms, flooding, drought, coastal and stream erosion, and earthquakes. These threats essentially threatens the well-being of its population and can cause severe damage to its fragile ecosystems and infrastructure.

One of the most pressing concerns is Antigua and Barbuda’s economic reliance on key sectors such as tourism. Natural disasters can devastate the tourism industry, causing significant disruptions in employment and national revenue. In essence, a single environmental shock has the potential to disrupt multiple systems simultaneously, amplifying the scale of disaster.

Building Resilience for Sustainable Development

Given these mounting threats, it is crucial for Antigua and Barbuda to adopt a comprehensive approach to building resilience. Resilience-building measures are not just about disaster risk reduction; they are fundamental to protecting socio-economic gains, improving recovery capacity, and ensuring long-term sustainable development. Without strategic investment in resilience, natural disasters and climate-related events could reverse decades of development progress and hinder future economic growth.

Moreover, Antigua and Barbuda is currently grappling with a triple crisis; food insecurity, energy vulnerability, and financial instability; further exacerbated by external global and regional shocks. The country’s heavy dependence on imported goods has made it increasingly susceptible to disruptions in global supply chains. In the food and agriculture sector, Antigua and Barbuda’s status as a net food importer has led to rising food prices. These price increases have been driven by several global factors including the COVID-19 pandemic, which disrupted global trade and supply chains; the surge in shipping costs from 2020 to 2023; and price volatility in global agricultural markets triggered by geopolitical conflicts like the Russia-Ukraine war.

Energy and Fuel Dependence

Antigua and Barbuda’s energy crisis mirrors its food crisis. The country imports all of its fuel to generate electricity, making it highly vulnerable to fluctuations in global oil prices. Between 2020 and 2024, oil prices fluctuated dramatically; from an unprecedented low of -US$40 per barrel to a high of US$129.75 per barrel. These fluctuations were driven by a combination of post-COVID-19 economic recovery, OPEC+ production cuts, rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, unexpected U.S. oil inventory surges, and economic slowdowns in major oil-importing countries like China.

While such volatility affects global markets, small Caribbean nations like Antigua and Barbuda are disproportionately impacted; especially when prices are high. This is due to structural factors such as limited storage capacity, high transportation costs, and the slow dissipation of oil price shocks in domestic fuel markets.

Financial Insecurity and Limited Fiscal Space

The financial aspect of this crisis is equally alarming. Antigua and Barbuda faces limited access to concessional finance and insufficient international financial support. This severely restricts the government’s ability to invest in critical areas such as resilience-building, infrastructure, and economic diversification. High public debt, elevated borrowing costs, and constrained fiscal space leave little room for responding effectively to emerging crises or for implementing long-term development projects.

1.2 Overarching Policy Rationale for Resilience

In the face of these multidimensional challenges, the Government of Antigua and Barbuda (GoAB) has taken proactive measures to support its population; especially vulnerable groups such as women, children, and the elderly. These actions have included increased public spending aimed at softening the blow of rising food and energy costs. However, while necessary, these interventions have placed further strain on the country’s already tight fiscal resources.

Looking ahead, it is expected that Antigua and Barbuda will remain highly dependent on food and fuel imports, and financial insecurity will continue to be a persistent issue. This makes resilience-building not only urgent but imperative. One of the most effective strategies is to prioritize investment in domestic food systems. Strengthening local agriculture and enhancing food production capacity can help ensure food security, reduce reliance on imports, and stabilize prices. These efforts must include modernizing farming practices, building resilient supply chains, and providing tangible support to local farmers.

Transitioning to Renewable Energy

Equally essential is a strategic pivot towards green energy. By investing in renewable energy sources such as solar and wind, Antigua and Barbuda can diversify its energy mix, reduce its carbon footprint, and protect itself from oil price volatility. Furthermore, promoting energy efficiency will lower emissions and help consumers manage electricity costs. A green transition is not just a climate imperative; it’s a socio-economic necessity for long-term stability.

Diversifying Access to Development Finance

To fund these critical transitions, Antigua and Barbuda must also diversify its sources of development finance. In the short term, the country should seek international aid and grants, but medium- and long-term strategies must focus on accessing concessional loans—that is, loans with long grace periods, low-interest rates, and flexible repayment terms.

The rationale for this approach is grounded in the principle of Common But Differentiated Responsibility (CBDR), as established in the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and enshrined in Principle 7 of the Rio Declaration. This principle acknowledges that while all countries share responsibility for addressing climate change, developed countries—classified as Annex I under the Convention—bear a greater burden due to their historical emissions and advanced economic capabilities. In contrast, non-Annex I countries, such as Antigua and Barbuda, face severe climate impacts but have limited means to respond.

As a small island nation with low GHG emissions yet high vulnerability to climate change, Antigua and Barbuda is a textbook example of a country that deserves concessional access to development finance. Therefore, the GoAB must strengthen its diplomatic efforts and collaborate with other SIDS to advocate for fairer financial mechanisms under global climate and development frameworks.

The Path Forward: A Roadmap for Resilience

The primary objective of the Antigua and Barbuda Roadmap to Build Resilience is to strengthen the country's capacity to withstand and recover from the food, energy, and financial crises it faces. To achieve this, targeted action in four thematic areas is required:

1. Food Systems – Strengthening local food production, improving agricultural practices, and supporting food value chains to achieve food security and affordability.

2. Energy Access and Affordability – Promoting renewable energy and energy efficiency to ensure sustainable, reliable, and affordable energy for all.

3. Digital Connectivity – Investing in digital infrastructure and skills to enable economic participation, e-governance, and resilience through innovation.

4. Jobs and Social Protection – Creating employment opportunities and expanding social safety nets to support vulnerable populations and enhance social resilience.

Each of these areas is interdependent and essential for building a resilient, inclusive, and sustainable economy in Antigua and Barbuda.

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